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Post by jdredd on Dec 3, 2010 22:53:33 GMT -5
Oh, I forget an observation: 5) We have been committed to preventing Mainland China from unifying with Taiwan for 60 years. This could be the basis for a confrontation. Is it really in our interest to keep Taiwan independent? It is in the WORLD's best interest to keep Taiwan independent. A lot of people agree with you. My question is: What is our control of the Eastern Pacific worth? Is it really worth war again?
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Post by dolphie on Dec 3, 2010 23:37:30 GMT -5
It is in the WORLD's best interest to keep Taiwan independent. A lot of people agree with you. My question is: What is our control of the Eastern Pacific worth? Is it really worth war again? It is not 'Control' of the Eastern Pacific we seek - it is stability and democracy. Then again - I guess you leftists like seeing the little people abused and living in toxic conditions.
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Post by jdredd on Dec 4, 2010 1:23:32 GMT -5
A lot of people agree with you. My question is: What is our control of the Eastern Pacific worth? Is it really worth war again? It is not 'Control' of the Eastern Pacific we seek - it is stability and democracy. Then again - I guess you leftists like seeing the little people abused and living in toxic conditions. Oh, I'm sorry, I led you astray. I mean Western Pacific.
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Post by Tired in CV on Dec 4, 2010 2:25:18 GMT -5
China has been portraying itself to be more diplomatic in world affairs most recently. It could be a part of their walk softly but carry a big stick. China seems to have a low desire of interventionism, particularly militarily.
This could be a wise plan while they continue to build their military, again, particularly their naval forces. Where they seem to project themselves and speak very loudly is defending what they perceive is "their" rightful shipping lanes. In this they seem to not recognize the international boundaries. Besides Taiwan, they also have many islands that they lay claim to that have importance to them both militarily and for their resources. As a growing country they need the resources and as a growing naval force, they also need some of the strategic locations of the islands to effectively protect their shipping lanes. There are many islands in dispute between various countries from Russia all they way throughout the south Pacific. With China's growing navy, they feel they now have the power to protect what they have always claimed.
While the U.S. has had little resistance throughout the Pacific, they have always respected the freedoms in "international waters". In the early 1970's our fleet followed the first major fleet movement from Russia, into the Pacific, to Alaska, along the coast of Washington, Oregon, and California to San Fransisco. Then out to Hawaii where they anchored in site of Honolulu. They the proceeded towards the Midway Islands where they launched several missiles and returned to Vladivostok.
That there is now a growing challenge in naval power developing, we need to keep an eye on how it develops so we may be prepared. But the international waters have not been a source to protect other than shipping when challenged. What will be changing is how the coastal areas along the Asian coastline and some south Pacific islands will be defined by the growing chinese naval forces. They are already protesting our military ships in our allies coastal areas and the adjacent "international" waters.
China is currently enjoying their international trading partnerships which may be reason for them to give up on N.Korea. Would they risk a military action with the U.S. that is a major trading partner? Much less likely than a few years ago, even though their naval forces have increased their power.
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Post by EscapeHatch on Dec 4, 2010 10:09:25 GMT -5
JD, Again, good questions. You asked:
I don't think we have had any real interest in influencing what happens in "our pond". At least not any more, if ever. It simply isn't our pond. We have no reason to fight anyone for control. There is nothing there that we control, or own, for that matter. The only reason we might get involved is because of treaties, none of which look like they are likely to implement US involvment in the region, with too remote exceptions. Japan and South Korea.
Taiwan is not a universally recognized sovreign nation. Their status is, even in their own words, a subject of "deliberate ambiguity". It is one of the wierdest situations on the planet. The government of Taiwan, or Republic of China, or ROC, as they call themselves, actually has a claim on mainland China in that they were the ruling power before the civil war. Fat chance of that ever being actualized. The Peoples Republic of China, or PRC, claims that they were the victor in the civil war and therefore Taiwan is rightfully a province of the PRC.
Taiwan is a trading partner with the US. But, I am not sure we would lose that if they were incorporated into the PRC. So, it is hard for me to see any reason to excert any influence in support of the ROC. We as a state don't even recognize ROC as a soveriegn nation. We recognize the PRC. So, I guess it matters most what the people of ROC want. And even they are very divided.
There is still a large Japanese population on Taiwan. They certainly don't want unification. Of the Chinese population, may want it and many don't. The aborigine segment doesn't really care and wouldn't mind if all those invaders would just get the hell out. Taiwanese people can travel to the mainland, but, not on a Taiwanese passport. They can apply for and are seldom refused issuance of a special pass from the PRC. Mainlanders travel to Taiwan because they have family there.
So, what is there for us to be involved in? Not much, as far as I can see. The food is great in both places.
Now, the rising capacity of China to affect the movement of oil and their explosive growth in their hunger for it, that is something we have to keep an eye on....
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Post by EscapeHatch on Dec 4, 2010 10:10:33 GMT -5
Tired- home run again.
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Post by nikki on Dec 5, 2010 19:32:29 GMT -5
I wish Gene were still around to give us some advise about China currently. I remember that he always warned us about China's young male population who had nothing else to do but join their military because of the limit on children and the emphasis on aborting female spawn in favor of males. What does a country do with all those testosterone driven males but prepare them for war?
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Post by EscapeHatch on Dec 6, 2010 13:52:27 GMT -5
I wish Gene were still around to give us some advise about China currently. I remember that he always warned us about China's young male population who had nothing else to do but join their military because of the limit on children and the emphasis on aborting female spawn in favor of males. What does a country do with all those testosterone driven males but prepare them for war? Agreed about Gene! As far as the testosterone driven males, the answer is simple: Get them dates! Things are not quite the same as they used to be for ever increasing numbers of urbanized males, as is society in general in China. There are still tons of backwards people in rural areas, to be sure. But, with one of the fastest growing economies in the world, the number and kinds of opportunities are evolving, too. It's weird. 25% of college graduates are out of work, yet, companies are having a hard time recruiting. Chinese schools are simply not preparing people for the job market. In a Forbes article, I read that out of 1,000 applicants, they hire two!!! That's because 998 grads can't cut the musperson. As they become more westernized, I bet things will change.
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Post by jdredd on Dec 6, 2010 14:09:23 GMT -5
JD, Again, good questions. You asked: I don't think we have had any real interest in influencing what happens in "our pond". At least not any more, if ever. It simply isn't our pond. We have no reason to fight anyone for control. There is nothing there that we control, or own, for that matter. The only reason we might get involved is because of treaties, none of which look like they are likely to implement US involvment in the region, with too remote exceptions. Japan and South Korea. Taiwan is not a universally recognized sovreign nation. Their status is, even in their own words, a subject of "deliberate ambiguity". It is one of the wierdest situations on the planet. The government of Taiwan, or Republic of China, or ROC, as they call themselves, actually has a claim on mainland China in that they were the ruling power before the civil war. Fat chance of that ever being actualized. The Peoples Republic of China, or PRC, claims that they were the victor in the civil war and therefore Taiwan is rightfully a province of the PRC. Taiwan is a trading partner with the US. But, I am not sure we would lose that if they were incorporated into the PRC. So, it is hard for me to see any reason to excert any influence in support of the ROC. We as a state don't even recognize ROC as a soveriegn nation. We recognize the PRC. So, I guess it matters most what the people of ROC want. And even they are very divided. There is still a large Japanese population on Taiwan. They certainly don't want unification. Of the Chinese population, may want it and many don't. The aborigine segment doesn't really care and wouldn't mind if all those invaders would just get the hell out. Taiwanese people can travel to the mainland, but, not on a Taiwanese passport. They can apply for and are seldom refused issuance of a special pass from the PRC. Mainlanders travel to Taiwan because they have family there. So, what is there for us to be involved in? Not much, as far as I can see. The food is great in both places. Now, the rising capacity of China to affect the movement of oil and their explosive growth in their hunger for it, that is something we have to keep an eye on.... Uh oh, hatch, sounds like you are SOFT ON TAIWAN. During WWII and many years after, there was a powerful Nationalist China lobby in Washington. How strong it is now I'm not certain. Looking at the problem from the mainland China point of view, it's like if we had an island off the coast of America which still had the Confederates in charge, but was protected by some other power. Hopefully we will be able to compromise with the PRC and Taiwan will get a status similar to Hong Kong.
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Post by nikki on Dec 6, 2010 15:39:15 GMT -5
I wish Gene were still around to give us some advise about China currently. I remember that he always warned us about China's young male population who had nothing else to do but join their military because of the limit on children and the emphasis on aborting female spawn in favor of males. What does a country do with all those testosterone driven males but prepare them for war? Agreed about Gene! As far as the testosterone driven males, the answer is simple: Get them dates! Things are not quite the same as they used to be for ever increasing numbers of urbanized males, as is society in general in China. There are still tons of backwards people in rural areas, to be sure. But, with one of the fastest growing economies in the world, the number and kinds of opportunities are evolving, too. It's weird. 25% of college graduates are out of work, yet, companies are having a hard time recruiting. Chinese schools are simply not preparing people for the job market. In a Forbes article, I read that out of 1,000 applicants, they hire two!!! That's because 998 grads can't cut the musperson. As they become more westernized, I bet things will change. It sounds like you travel to China somewhat frequently, so you would know better than I. I was referring to the reported demographic imbalance of men/women and the resulting male aggression that China has experienced. Have you heard or seen that during your travels? Gene used to talk about that as it relates to their military mindset as well. www.asiasentinel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1114&Itemid=34
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Post by EscapeHatch on Dec 6, 2010 16:13:24 GMT -5
You know, Nikki, I never heard or read about that before. I had no idea.
I have been to China only twice and Taiwan three. So, as much as I'd like to say otherwise, I am really no expert. But, I do like the people.
That was a very interesting article.
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Post by Turk on Dec 6, 2010 16:55:56 GMT -5
I wish Gene were still around to give us some advise about China currently. I remember that he always warned us about China's young male population who had nothing else to do but join their military because of the limit on children and the emphasis on aborting female spawn in favor of males. What does a country do with all those testosterone driven males but prepare them for war? Nikki, Makes sense to me, I know how cranky I get after just a week alone at the farm. Hatch, Do you regard Taiwan as a sovereign nation? If so, why should we have come to Kuwait's defense (other than oil) when they were invaded and then not come to Taiwan's defense?
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Post by EscapeHatch on Dec 6, 2010 17:59:21 GMT -5
... Uh oh, hatch, sounds like you are SOFT ON TAIWAN. During WWII and many years after, there was a powerful Nationalist China lobby in Washington. How strong it is now I'm not certain. Looking at the problem from the mainland China point of view, it's like if we had an island off the coast of America which still had the Confederates in charge, but was protected by some other power. Hopefully we will be able to compromise with the PRC and Taiwan will get a status similar to Hong Kong. You know how it is, JD. You tend to overlook some flaws in some people and come down hard on others with the same blemishes. And I don't disagree with your assessment of the ROC/PRC situation. The Kuomintang still has a presence in the ROC government. They are still strongly nationalistic and they think that the communist government in China needs to cede the mainland back to them. Now that's cojones! The only thing I am not sure I could agree on is the "control" part of our relationship with Taiwan. We don't even recognize them fully as a sovereign state! When we officially refer to China, we only mean the PRC. The ROC is an ambiguous demi-state that just happens to be friendly toward us. I know that is oversimplifying, but, I don't doubt that you know what I mean. We stood with the Nationalists during the civil war. We invested tons of money and American lives. My Dad was stationed in Tsingtao then when he was in the Marines. Germans, Brits and many others were, too, all supporting the cause against communism. The Tsingtao brewery survived, in case anyone was concerned. Great beer! I'll tell you, the more I read about China, the more confused I get! I've read one hell of a lot, so, I must be pretty confused by now.
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Post by EscapeHatch on Dec 6, 2010 18:38:59 GMT -5
... Hatch, Do you regard Taiwan as a sovereign nation? If so, why should we have come to Kuwait's defense (other than oil) when they were invaded and then not come to Taiwan's defense? Well, other than having an ally in the area, what do they really have to offer? Remember, they have actually only been a democracy for a short time. But, to be fair to a good question, Kuwait has greater strategic importance to us than Taiwan. If Taiwan were annexed by the PRC and fully incorporated, I don't know what the loss would be to us. I don't think we'd lose them as a trading partner. And if we did, then what? What would be the real impact on us? I don't think it would be significant. Losing a possible base of naval operations there wouldn't be a great loss, but, if the PRC shot a few missiles across the sea and stormed into Taipei, what could we really do and what long term gain would there be in getting involved. I believe that military contingency plans include the option of just watching and doing nothing. I don't necessarily see the PRC as a benevolent giant in all this. But, I do think that they have the legal leg up in that they won the civil war and Taiwan, once known as Formosa, was a part of China for a period of time before then. The other side could argue of the loss of the pink slip because of Japan's occupation, and title due to a questionable treaty I guess, but, the Japanese quit claimed the property when they were defeated and the treaty is still questionable. Look at just where Taiwan is situated. They are awfully close to China. "I can see Hong Kong from my house!" isn't exactly true, of course. But, many Taiwanese still have relatives in Hong Kong, Kowloon and Canton. And vice versa. The real wall in reunification remains with the hard-line nationalists that still don't get that they lost. Not the U.S. Does anyone remember that even G.W. Bush thought things over regarding China and Taiwan? And why? I think he was right. He went from "do whatever it takes" to defend Taiwan to urging the entry of China into the WTO. The reasons behind that evolution of thought is worth studying. His convoluted strategic ambiguity regarding China and Taiwan actually made sense to me after a while. Question back to all: what was the worst result when the lease ran out on Hong Kong. They are much richer now than before the handover. Let me be clear to state that I have other concerns about China that I think we need to keep an eye on. Their industrial build up, the burgeoning consumerism, and how all this leads to their increased need for oil is of much more interest to me than Taiwan. That is, of course, until some Taiwanese hillbilly named Jeing Clam Pei shoots at the ground and discovers bubbling crude...
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Post by Tired in CV on Dec 7, 2010 1:14:14 GMT -5
Question back to all: what was the worst result when the lease ran out on Hong Kong. They are much richer now than before the handover. Let me be clear to state that I have other concerns about China that I think we need to keep an eye on. Their industrial build up, the burgeoning consumerism, and how all this leads to their increased need for oil is of much more interest to me than Taiwan. That is, of course, until some Taiwanese hillbilly named Jeing Clam Pei shoots at the ground and discovers bubbling crude... The worst was that Britain lost their base of operations, reducing the support of allies in the area. Otherwise, China did a very smart thing and let Hong Kong remain pretty much free outside of a few governmental regulations that are not readily noticed. Even some of the people who fled there for the states moved back. I think they would likely do a similar action with Taiwan if they ever reunite (under any circumstances). Do you think they might have a 1921 Oldsmobile in Taiwan? Or perhaps a 1921 Mitsubishi? ;D
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